Even though African politics, like politics everywhere else, sometimes bring a number of surprises, it is often the case that political affairs tend to be rather predictable. For example, in certain countries the outcome of elections is known well before they take place, as a result of the ruling party's dominant position in politics and society and its nearly total control of the media and public institutions. Generally however, people interested in following, analysing, (even trying to predict) African politics needs to deal with different situations and different degrees of uncertainty which follow from varying levels of information. The problem of “imperfect information” – to borrow a term from the game theory and political science jargon – is particularly accurate in undemocratic regimes, given that these are often the least transparent. Recent news coming from different African countries – all of which, curiously, are examples of national unity governments – can help us see how these different levels of uncertainty play out. And also how this uncertainty and lack of information, relates not only to the more or less democratic character of the regime, but also to how far citizen-driven media and ITCs have mad inroads into the public opinion landscapes of these countries.
The varying levels of information and uncertainty that can be distinguished in any given situation were brilliantly defined by the otherwise unsympathetic (to put it mildly) of the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, back in 2002. In his now famous words:"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we do not know we don’t know."
In a few African countries, for a number of reasons, including: a more visible traditional media - TV, radio and, especially, newspapers (as this entry on A Bombastic Element notes) - more developed world of ITCs (with a brand new iHub), various blogs and citizen journalism initiatives, stronger connections to the international media and public opinion, etc – people can have access to a greater level of information, which in turn allows them to have a fairly accurate idea of what the situation is, and what is to be expected. The position of the Kenyan unity government is one such example and, as I have blogged before here (in Spanish though), it is widely known that the accountability of the government and the political class, falls well short of what it is expected, and that in-fighting within the government often hampers political decisions.
Thus, the news last weekend that Prime Minister Raila Odinga's decision to remove the Ministers of agriculture and education from their posts as a result of a fraud investigation, had been revoked by President Mwai Kibaki, was another example – even if this time a more serious one – of a known situation. Below you can see the NTV report on this decision.
A second degree of uncertainty relates to those situations where there is a general awareness of the situation, but the lack on information is important. This has been the case, for example, in the recent events in Cote d'Ivoire, where Friday’s announcement that President Gbagbo was dissolving the national unity government as well as the Electoral Commission to be named, came as a surprise. But only a relative one, given that the elections, planned for next month, had been repeatedly delayed since 2005, and that this time round, doubts had been cast on the electoral roll, after it was found that the electoral commission had fraudulently added nearly 500.000 names to the voting list. All these situation was only briefly covered by the traditional media, and citizen journalism and new media, only partly could cover for this absence, as Miquel brilliantly writes over at Subsaharska. This situation continued during this week, with some blogs and Twitter users – such as @hudin, @eliaws, @ourmaininafrica, @cartunelo, @tndzulo – commenting on the protests which occurred on Monday and yesterday, after there was a delay in naming a new government.
President Gbagbo makes his announcement - Foto Subsaharska
Finally, Cote d'Ivoire's neighbour, Guinea-Conakry, could be cited as an example of numerous unknown unknowns. Even though I am no specialist on Guinean politics, I get the feeling that, ever since the horrific events of September 28th last year (see the Human Rights Watch report here), the international opinion has been constantly surprised by the different news coming out from this country, not all of them bad. These include, in chronological order (and also from worse to better), the shooting of Dadis Camara in December and his swift exit from the country, the decision of the military to name not only a civilian leader, but an opposition leader, Jean-Marie Doré to lead the transition, and the recent unveiling of an interim government, made up of over 30 members both military and civilian, together with the compromise that elections will be held within six months. The unexpected nature of all these events – unknown unknowns – is mostly explained by the scarce information coming out the country – a good example of information however, is the journalist portal Konakry Express - as well as the rather obscure character of the Guinean regime.
Thus, the degree of "unknownledge", this is uncertainty, of any situation in (African) politics, is given by the information available. If we want to be able to understand these different situations then we must encourage the production of more and more reliable information, not only from traditional sources, but also from new media and citizen journalism. Initiatives that, although growing within African countries, are doing it unevenly and often facing serious difficulties, something that results in varying levels of information and certainty.
There is no doubt that during the more than 150 years that it has existed,photography has changed the way we relate to the world around us. In a way, in the words of Susan Sontag, has altered the notion "of what is worth looking at and what we have a right to observe" (On Photography, 1971, p.3). Regarding the African continent, photography has also played a role. The "construction" of the African continent during the nineteenth and twentieth century by racist and colonial discourses has been based not only on words, spoken or written, but also and perhaps more powerfully, on images. Sontag notes "there is something predatory in the act of taking a picture. To photograph people is to violate, by seeing them as they never see themselves... ; it turns people into objects that can be symbolically possessed" (On Photography, 1971, p .14). The profound relationship between the construction of an European imaginary of colonised Africa and photography has been explored numerous times. One of the most interesting examples may be the book " Images and empires: visuality in colonial and postcolonial Africa ", edited by Paul S. Landau and Deborah D. Kaspin. In the Spanish context, this kind of colonial imagery is vividly portrayed in the book of Pere Ortín and Vic Pereira "Mbini: Hunters of images in colonial Guinea .
But while the Europeans used the "colonising camera" to create an image of Africa that corresponded to his racist discourse that justified colonial occupation, the camera was used during all this time for Africans to create their own discourses. Already during the nineteenth century African individuals and families posed in studio photography sessions that became a way to portray and create an alternative image to that suggested by Europeans. During the twentieth century, with cheaper and more easily available cameras, this construction of an alternative discourse began to democratise, being accessible to more people. With the advent of independence, many photographers became true chroniclers of the optimism and hope of these countries. Some of these chroniclers would become two of the best known African photographers: Malick Sidibé and Seidou Keita , both from Mali.
Merengue dancer, 1964, © Malick Sidibé. Photo courtesy Fifty One Fine Art Photography
Via LensCulture
Girls on Bike © Seydou Keita (via BBC Photography )
Today, fifty years after the independence of most of African countries, there are many photographers on the continent, each with different interests, languages and styles. Many blogs often comment on the work of these artists and journalists that convey different images of the continent. For example, Twiga recently pointed out a number of South African photographer (including the photographer Nontsikelelo Veleko, whose exhibition "Welcome to Paradise" can be seen in Casa África in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria until 19 February).
Other blogs like Africa is a Country , and A Bombastic Element , periodically make entries on the photography and photographers of the continent such as the Ghanaian Nana Kofi Acqua , or the South African Steve Bloom .
Despite these variety of images and photographers, the representation of the continent continues to be often manipulated by different discourses: in this case the images of primitive peoples used to justify colonial occupation have given way to images of poverty, wars, famines and disasters that support an image of Africa as a place with no present and no future. To counter this, various initiatives have emerged that seek to offer another image of the continent. An example of this is Joan Bardeletti's project "Middle Classes in Africa" (via Africa is a Country ), which seeks to portray the African middle classes, and has started in Kenya and Ivory Coast. The choice of this population group is due both to the fact that it is growing rapidly, as to the fact that it has traditionally been seen as a symbol of Western development absent on the continent.
Kady Camara in his internet cafe and photocopying in Abidjan (Photo Middle Classes in Africa )
Another such project is "Africa Knows" , a Kenyan initiative that seeks to tell another story about Africa, through photojournalism and creative writing and using social networks and new technologies. In addition, photos of AfricaKnows can be bought online in various formats to support the project.
Been Together for Too Long (Photo: Joshua Wanyama)
Lately African infrastructures, of all sorts, are becoming one of the most popular topics for those commenting on the state of the continent. I, at least, have a come across a number of different news and reports pointing out new developments, the impact of Chinese investment, new European and World Bank support for large-scale investment (1970s-style), communication infrastructures, etc.
So I thought I would put all of this together in a mini-round up of recent (and old) news about different aspects of African infrastructures:
Internet and Broadband
Online Africa is definitely the place to go for all internet things related: they, for example, report on the award given to the ubiquitous SEACOM for the best Pan-African initiative. They also have a section with plenty of maps showing internet bandwith connections and undersea cables.
Subsaharska has also reported on the Central African Backbone, with the latest news been posted yesterday - a follow up to the first post from two months ago.
Undersea broadband cables
Energy
I have written here before about the Desertec Foundation's plan to turn the Saharan desert into a massive energy plan, and also about Congo's vision - with World Bank support - for a massive Great Inga Dam which would have a massive ecological impact and whose power may be going, not to Africa, but Europe.
Oil continues to have a crucial importance, and the biggest African exporter, Nigeria, is undergoing a critical reform of this sector with the promotion of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), Africa-Confidential reports.
Road Transportation
After decades in which African roads were left unattended, and their state declined rapidly, a new interest has appeared in fixing the existing infrastructures, and building new ones. In Nigeria, ex-President Obasanjo has showed his concern for the state of the country's roads.
One of the key areas of Chinese investment on the continent is the creation of infrastrucries, as we have pointed before, and very recently pledged $349 millon for building a highway in Ethiopia linking the capital to the city of Adama.
European countries are also turning their attention to roads, and a few months ago, the UK pledged $1 billion to rebuilid 8,500km of roads and over 500km of railways accross eight different African countries.
Rail Transportation
Mozambique Sena Rail line has been recently reopened, linking the coal mines in Moatize with the port of Beira, which is giving neglected areas a much needed boost. This contrasts with the crumbling state of other East African railways, for example in Kenya, as today's post on A Bombastic Element notes. For more information and news on African railways, you can visit this site.
The problems which poor transport infrastructure have for a country's economy and trade are highlighted on this article on The Monitor (Uganda) signalling why the Kampala-Mombasa (Northern Corridor) is preffered to the Kampala-Dar-es-Salam one, harming thus the Tanzanian economy.
A view of the newly rebuilt Sena Line. - Photo: Stewart Currie (Railways Africa)
Although I have wanted to write about this topic for a while, I had not found the moment or excuse, to do so. However, a piece of news known last week, has made this topic a bit more relevant. Last saturday an agreement was signed in Addis Abeba between the current President of Madagascar, AndrY Rajoelina, and his predecessor Marc Ravalomana, who Rajoelina brought down after a long political crisis last March. Through this agreement, supported by the UN and the AU, both politicians become "co-presidents" of the country. It is surprising here, the position of "co-president", but behind the title hides an institutional model which is becoming more common in the continent. I mean the formation of Governments of Nautional Unity (GNU), as a solution to serious political crises, which often have led to violence. While this solution is not unique to the continent - see the agreements reached in Honduras - the growing popularity of this alternative raises, at least, two series of interesting questions.
Current Madagascar President, Andry Rajoelina (photo AFP)
The first one, more immediately relevant to current affairs, revolves around the question of whether these solutions work, and whether they contribute to a better governence of the country. It is clear that these agreements bring stability to the country. This was the case for example in Kenya, where the agreement between Odinga and Kibaki served to bring an end to the post-electoral violence that caused over 1,000 deaths at the beginning of 2008. But, it needs to be asked whether the price paid for stability is not to high, and whether these agreements serve only to legitmise the continuity in power of leaders that have got (or have maintained themselves) there in a non-democratic manner- Thus, had the popular will, reflected in the votes, been respected in Kenya and Zimbabwe, Kibaki and Mugabe would have abandoned the government after the elections. However, through fraud and violence first, and the signing of GNU agreements after, both remain in power. Leaders like Rajoelina (or Micheletti in Honduras) reached power through the use of violence, and through these agreements achieve certain ligitimacy. It is neccesary then, to be critical with the use that political leaders seeking only to remain in powe, can make of these agreements.
Equally important to determine the extent to which these solutions can be positive, y to analyse the functioning of these GNUs, and their decisions. For example in Zimbabwe, the ZANU-MDC relations are dominated not only by a bitter rivaly, but also by mistrust - and this makes extremely difficult to reach any decision. Furthermore, despite having entered into the GNU, Mugabe continues attacking its functioning, arresting MDC members for example, something that has led Tsvangirai to boycott the agreement (although he backed down from this position later). Another important risk involved in the formation of a GNU is that the leaders of the main political parties (all included now in the government) may become complacent and clientelistic, and that this may lead to a lack of response to the demands from the population. The case of Kenya is particularly revealing: here, the political class, grouped around the Kibaki/odinga government has completely failed in clearing the political and criminal responsabilities for the violence in 2008, and has left this search for responsibilities on the hands of civil society and international institutions like the ICC. As we have mentioned before.
Zimbabwean PM, Morgan Tsvangirai (left), with the President, Robert Mugabe
A second series of questions around these GNUs is less direct, and refers to the model of government most adequate for the different African countries, and the preference for one or another showed by the different actors in the continent - the population, political leaders and the international community. It is particularly interesting the question of whether some of the elements of the political though of leaders of the African independence, like Nyerere or Kaunda, could re-emerge in the African political discourse some time in the future. And, it needs to be noted, the GNUs existing at the moment bear a striking resemblance with the wide coalitions formed by these leaders within their single-party governments. A model which these leaders/theoreticians defended for two reasons. First, as the best way of defending the national unity of these countries - and to contain what they considered a threat from a political pluralism which may give wings to ethnic and regionalist movements. And second, as a way of promoting a form of consensual democracy, not majoritarian, closer for these leadrs, to the ideal of democracy in precolonial Africa in which the "the Elders sit under the big tree and talk until they agree" (Nyerere). These ideas lost relevance in the 1970s as most African governments moved towards authoritarism, and disappeared completely under the wave of multi-party democracy that swept the country - with the support of the international community - in the 1990s.
It is clear that most leaders that promoted single party regimes, ended up doing this this as self-interested decisions, and that the ideas of precolonial democracry were largely idealised. But this should not deny the value of the ideas of "consensual democracy" defended by these leaders (and later by philosophers such as Kwasi Wiredu - in his "plea for a no-party polity), seeking a model for African democracy different to the Western one. Neither can this hide the fact that the democracy promoted - together with an eceonomic liberalisation - since the 1990s by different actors has barely resulted in large benefits for the majority of the african population. What is more, in many cases, the democratic transitions have constituted cosmetic reforms directed to an international audience. This has been pointed put brilliantly by the Nigerian political scientist Claude Aké in his book The Feasibility of Democracy in Africa, (Dakar,CODESRIA,2000),, in which he denounces the irrelevance and emptiness of the liberal democracy adopted by african governments - with great degree of international support (or pressure) - and contrasts this with the social democracy - guaranteeing not only political, but also economic rights - trully necessary, and for which the majority of the population fights.
Cover of C. Aké's book.
In conclusion, the appearance of GNUs in diverse countries accross the continent constitutes in my opinion, an interesting process. There are clear risks - as we have pointed ou - which require attention regarding their functioning. But perhaps, if any of these experiments is successful and manges to give to these countries not only stability, but a real benefit for the majority of the population, it may be possible to establish a more open dialogue about the meaning of democracy in Africa, removed from the fetish of multi party elections. A dialogue in which there may be space for ideas that many may believe buried, about social democracy, the redistribution of economic benefits and in which there may be a greater freedom and creativity for the establishment of government institutions trully representative and adequate for the African continent
Un diálogo en el que quepan ideas que muchos quizás creían extinguidas, sobre la democracia social, la distribución de los recursos económicos, y en el que exista una mayor libertad y creatividad a la hora de establecer instituciones de gobierno verdaderamente representativas y adecuadas al continente africano.
