Last Tuesday it was the 20th anniversary of the announcement of Mandela's release from Robben Island. And what was practically the whole of South Africa talking about...? President Zuma's sex life!! As you probably know by now, a newspaper las Sunday published the exclusive that Zuma had fathered his 20th child. The baby born last October however, was the result of an extra-marital affair with Sonono Khoza (39), the daughter of football magnate and member of the World Cup organising committee Irvin Khoza. Ever since the story broke, all of the South African media, the blogosphere, the twittersphere has been of fire, discussing the matter. As an example, Thought Leader, the opinion portal of the newspapater Mail and Guardian, and the top ranked blog in Africa, according to Afrigator, has published numerous posts on the matter, by different columnists. Just listing some of their titles gives an idea of what are the most important problemas and aspects which derive from the whole story: for example, Michael Trapido - Is Zuma's sex drive out of control?; Marius Redelinghuys - Umshini wethu weSex; Janice Winter - Father of the nation? In that case, the personal is public, Dad ; Khaya Dlanga - The president is public property; Alex Matthews - Why Zuma's sex life in endangering millions; Christi van der Westhuizen - The ‘bonus’ of polygamy, but only if you’re ‘indigenous’ (Part 1), etc

South African President Jacob Zuma with his fifth wife Thobeka Mabhija, whom he married in January (Jerome Delay, Reuters)

I once read something along the lines that (can't remember or find the exact quote): "political scandals in Italy are about always money, and in England about sex", pointing out that each country has a distinctive character that dictates what constistutes a scandal and what is an acceptable, or unproblematic behaviour. In this case South African society and the country's recent history dictate a series of fault-lines which usually dictate how politics is conducted and how public opinion tends to get divided. Most of these fault-lines, which include: the racial legacy of apartheid, how to deal with cultural diversity in the "rainbow nation", the HIV-AIDS epidemy, Zuma's character and his contrast to both Mandela and Mbeki... have been touched in this saga, along with more universal concerns such as: the responsibility of politicians, and the public/private division. Thus, as the story broke the ANC refused to comment alleging that the party had "always made a distinction between people’s personal affairs and their public responsibilities. Insofar as we are concerned, the alleged relationship of the president and anyone should be treated as such”. On a similar note, Julius Malema, president of the ANC Youth League, argued that: “We are Africans and sitting here all of us [sic], Zuma is our father so we are not qualified to talk about that”; an explanation even more questionable as it sought to bring a cultural argument to defend Zuma's actions (in this case the respect for elders).

But the indefensible character of the extra-marital affair, together with Zuma's baggage, and the HIV-AIDS epidemy in South Africa, soon began to weight on the judgements passed on the President - who on Wednesday was forced to admith the paternity of the child (and announced that he would take two days off, because he was exhausted). Let us remember that Zuma was accused (and later acquitted) of raping a young HIV-positive woman in 2006, and that during the trial he admitted having (unprotected) sex with her and infamously declared to have had a shower to prevent being infected by HIV/AIDS (something which earned him a shower-head, courtesy of cartoonist Zapiro, only recently removed - more on this story here). This was an unacceptable behaviour from a South African public figure (and even more so from a future president), but Zuma appeared to have mended his way in last year's AIDS Day speech, widely praised by NGOs and pressure groups, and in which he announced that Anti-Retro Virals would be made available to all HIV positive babies, and that, although mistakes had been made, the government would now lead the HIV-AIDS fight in South Africa, and that himself was preparing to take an HIV test.

A Zapiro cartoon showing Zuma and his shower.

Now, the announcement of this extra-marital paternity threatens to un-do all his work on this deparment, and appears to be affecting his support among the public, and perhaps more crucially among members of the Alliance. Thus, the M&G reports today that leaders of the ANC Youth League, COSATU, and the SACP, although not making openly hostile comments, "are known to have opined privately that his behaviour was simply indefensible". I have written more extensively here, about Zuma's need for delicately balancing the forces within and outside his government if he wants to successfully lead the South African government. It also seems clear now, that the popular support that he enjoyed when he was invested in April last year is quickly diminishing on the face of contiuned economic hardship, and that the political support that he needs, is only being harmed by his "bedroom antics".

No one doubts that 2010 will be a momentous year for South Africa. But in politics, exciting things have been taking place for the past two years - specifically since Thabo Mbeki's ousting from the African National Congress (ANC). Then, barely 10 months later Mbeki was forced to resign, after the Pietermaritzburg Court ruled that the corruption charges against Zuma were unfounded and that they, furthermore, had been politically motivated - we have to remember here that these charges were central to the power struggle between Mbeki and Zuma and the reason for Mbeki's dismissal of Zuma as deputy president in 2005. Finally, the change in power was confirmed with Zuma's election as South African president in April 2009.

In political parties' terms, this was not a surprise, as the ANC's majority in South Africa has not been challenged by any other party - and is not likely to be anytime soon. The most important risk to the ANC's continuity in power, as numerous analysts point out, comes from internal fighting and divisions. One such challenge has already emerged, although not along the expected lines - most people saw as most likely a left-leaning block led by COSATU and SACP to challenge the ANC - but as a result of the Mbeki-Zuma fighting. Late in 2008 CoPe (Congress of the People) was created, and although it got relatively good result for a newcomer, it was far away from presenting a serious challenge to the ANC.

Nevertheless, if for party politics Zuma's taking over from Mbeki as president has not mattered much, there are many other aspects in which this Zunami! it has meant a total change. First, there is a clear difference in the backgrounds (both in class and ethnic terms) of Zuma and Mbeki. Zuma has become the first Zulu president of South Africa, taking over from Mbeki, a Xhosa (like Mandela). Also, while Mandela belonged to a royal lineage among the Xhosas, and Mbeki was born into an educated middle class family - both his parents were theachers, and Mbeki earned his BA and Master's degree in the U.K. (Sussex University), Zuma finished only his primary school. But, despite this clear differences, it is in their character that the starker contrast betweem Zuma and Mbeki appears.

Mbeki always had a serious presence, sometimes seeming even cold and aloof - perhaps even arrogant. He was a theoretical man, used to political dealings to be made secretly, outside from the spotlight, as they had been done by him (with great success) in exile and during the apartheid transition. For those interested in Mbeki's figure and his life, I can recommend Mark Gevisser's book "A Legacy of Liberation". Zuma is the total opposite to this: he's much more extroverted, laughs often, and has a charismatic - some may say populist-leaning - personality. For a more detailed analysis of his policies, you can read this recent special Concerned African Scholars bulletin.

Thabo Mbeki

Nothing however, encapsulates this difference better than their dress-code and their different public behaviour. Mbeki "black englishman" looks - elegant suits, pipe-smoker and a calm on-stage presence could not be further away from Zuma's "Umshini wami" ("bring me my machine gun") chanting in political meetings (see the video here)onstage dancing, and his use of traditional clothing. Zuma is also a polygamist, and last Monday he married Thobeka Madiba,his 5th wife - you can see pictures of the ceremony here. And is Zuma's character wasn't colourful enough, a new figure has emerged in South African politics, who's drawing most of the media attention: ANC Youth League (ANCYL) president Julius Malema. Malema's controversial remarks, often with a racial dimension, have been one of the talking points in South Africa in 2009 - together with his disappointing highschool grades, and his flashy life-style.

President Zuma dances during the campaign for the presidential elections (Photo Jonathan Clayton)

But behind Zuma's charismatic presence and Malema's politically incorrect comments, South Africa faces more serious challenges, which its politicians need to take care. Not only the global economic crisis, which is affecting South Africa greatly, but especially, the response to the crisis that is expected from politicians. Zuma came to power promising a left-turn in social policies, seeking to incorporate those left behing by Mbeki's neo-liberal orientation. But he also promised foreign investors and national capital that not much would change. This squaring of the circle appears as something impossible, and the disaffection gripping society may soon be reflected on politicians. The tripartite alliance (ANC, COSATU, SACP) is likely to suffer and, according to comentator William Gumede, a reallignment is already taking place. At present, the left flank of the Alliance - SACP, COSATU - is dissapointed with Zuma's government, whom they helped to power; and they would like to do something about it (a new "party of the left"?) but their social base is weaker than ever. Winning the support of "new poor" (not-unionised, informal workers, and those unemployed) remains the key challenge for the left. But this constituency is also being wooed by an emerging "nationalist-populist-traditionalist block" (Gumede), who's benefiting from Zuma's popularity and of whom Malema's ANCYL can be perceived as their leader. If Malema wants to be a serious candidate to a good position however, most people agree that he must learn the trade and tone down most of his interventions this coming year. A taste of whay may be hapening to South African politics from here to the ANC 2012 Centenary conference if the rift between the left block and the populist block continues, can be seen in the recent incident at the SACP conference, when Malema was heckled, booed and criticised for his lifestyle. To this, he responded by storming off and calling for the ANC to take actions. Now, a similar treatment from the ANCYL audience to SACP leaders is feared at the Kimberly conference happening today, something that has been tried to be avoided by a number of talks this Christmas seeking to bridge the rifts within the Alliance. We'll see what happens today but, there is no doubt that the excitement in South African politics is far from ending soon. Interesting times do lie ahead!